Locks
NBA (1 Unit) LA Clippers/Atlanta Hawks Over 242 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on Bally Sports SE
Keep an eye on the injury report to see if any LA stars rest on this back-to-back, but otherwise it will be interesting to see how the Clippers bounce back from the Miami flu that caused such a slow start for them yesterday. That was one of very few hiccups for their offense on this road trip, and I think they return to the elite offensive form we’ve seen in recent weeks.
It helps to face Atlanta’s defense and style of play, as the Hawks are now on a 6-game run going over this total with those games averaging 262.0 PPG. They’ll speed up the Clippers in this no-rest spot for LA, but that should just lead to points with two of the league’s top offenses squaring off so don’t overthink this one.
NBA (1 Unit) Golden State Warriors/Brooklyn Nets Over 237.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on NBA TV
Both of these teams have had their offenses rejuvenated lately, and that’s making this total undervalued. Both the Warriors and Nets have spent the season with fairly middling offensive statistics, and I think those season-long valuations are holding down the number here. That’s especially true for Golden State, as they’ve seen a big change in how their games have been played since Christmas.
The past 15 games for the Warriors have averaged 243.3 points while going 10-5 over this total. That’s boosted them to the second-best over record in the league with the highest plus/minus to the total. Brooklyn’s shift has been much more recent, but their defense is really struggling against teams willing to play a style like Golden State does. Look for both defenses to continue to struggle tonight and help get this one over the discounted total.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Miami/Virginia Under 132.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN
I’m pretty surprised to see a Virginia home game with a total this high, especially since their last home game was lined with a 113.5 point total. That was excessively low, but this is too big of a swing in the other direction that’s based on what’s supposed to be a good Miami offense coming to town. But I’ve seen too many flaws in that offense for the Hurricanes this season, and they continue to have issues with shooting on the road.
If the Canes aren’t able to make three’s over the pack-line defense for Virginia, then the Cavaliers are going to grind them down tonight. Virginia is still Virginia, with a snail’s pace and elite defense that has created a 9-4 under record at home, and 125.6 average points in ACC home games. I think the Cavs continue to dictate that style in their own building and keep another game under the total.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) McNeese State Team Total Over 77 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN+
This McNeese team has an elite offense that deserves national attention. That’s what you get with Will Wade though, and you also get a coach who truly hates to lose. So after the Cowboys blew a game on Saturday for their first conference loss, I think they come back today with a vengeance against the Southland’s worst team. McNeese is averaging 88.3 PPG in conference home games, and the country’s second-best three-point shooting team should light it up from deep. I don’t expect them to take their foot off the gas either, so in a low-total game this isolated number is one I think they reach with ease.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Kansas/Kansas State Under 145 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN
This in-state rivalry road game is the second massive game for Kansas, and I think it ends up being something of a flat spot for them. The Jayhawks dispatched Houston pretty easily on Saturday as they just couldn’t miss, but that’s an outlier event against an elite defense. They’ll have to contend with another strong defensive team here as K-State is 26th in adjusted defensive efficiency, and the Jayhawks won’t have the benefit of Phog Allen.
Manhattan is a tough place to play, so expect the Jayhawks to have some negative shooting regression tonight. When you combine that with how bad Kansas State’s offense has been, I’m struggling to see where all the points will come from. The Wildcats are just 203rd in effective field goal percentage and play at a fairly slow pace, leading to them averaging just 66.5 PPG in Big12 play. Defense is the biggest strength for the Jayhawks, so expect them to lean on that in this tough road game that stays under the total.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 2016-1817 ATS (+96.7 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.